About This Item

Share This Item

The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database

Houston Geological Society Bulletin

Abstract


Houston Geological Society Bulletin, Volume 48, No. 3, November 2005. Pages 39 and 41.

Abstract: Beware of Global Cooling

By

Fred L. Oliver

Over the past several years the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN-IPCC) has presented a significant amount of global climate data indicating a prediction of catastrophic future increase in average global temperatures caused by an excessive influx of humangenerated carbon dioxide (CO2) from the burning of fossil fuels for the generation of human-required energy. For the most part, the UN scientific studies justifying such a conclusion are based on global climate models (GCMs) with climate simulations from computer mathematical calculations and simulations. These studies have resulted in the UN-IPCC Kyoto Protocol calling for a treaty Previous HitamongNext Hit all nations of the world to limit or reduce the amount of atmospheric CO2 by reducing the use of fossil fuels.

This may be an interesting scientific concept, but it comes at a time when there is no real current substitute for the generation of energy requirements from the burning of fossil fuels. It is not believed the global economy could afford such major investments in that removal and that the invention of unknown energy substitutes or alternatives seems far in the future. Nor could the growing global population afford to essentially go back to the horse and buggy days for many reasons. It is concluded that the experiment would not be successful in reducing the rate of CO2 influx or in reducing the many natural causes for climate and temperature changes in any recognizable manner. If the experiment were successful, it would not be adequate to overcome the many natural geologic reasons for the perpetual climate changes demonstrated from the historical geologic record on all time scales. The global temperature would not be significantly changed.

End_Page 39---------------

However, the form of global governments and their sovereignty, including that of the United States, could be substantially changed by such United Nations control. I do not believe the United States should agree with these possibilities and ratify the Kyoto Protocol even if it were proved that the limiting or removal of some small percentage of atmospheric CO2 was possible and that it might have some effect on the average global temperature.

There are serious questions concerning the validity of the GCMs and their mathematical simulations because of the large number of natural causes for climate changes, many of them unknown or inadequately measured. The magnitude of the effects is unknown, as are the Previous HitinterrelationshipsTop of global changes with the attitude of the earth in relation to the sun.

A study of the paleo-geologic perspective of climate change indicated the current average global temperatures are well within the range of prior historical climates and temperature, in the past brought about by natural physical causes. The energy output from the sun has changed over geologic time. The physical surface of earth has changed, as has its attitude in relation to the radiant heat source from the sun.

This article will attempt to prove the paleo-geological relationship with the ever-changing global climate and the futility of attempting to change the climate by the removal of a small amount of CO2 from the atmosphere.

There have been about 17 ice ages during the last 2 million years of the earth’s history. In general, ice ages last about 100,000 years and interglacial global warming periods last about 10,000 to 14,000 years. The current Holocene warming period has lasted for over 10,000 years.What do you believe is coming next in the form of major climate change? There is good geological evidence for past climate changes and good evidence that the current warming period is one of the natural changes not caused by an anthropogenic increase of a small amount of CO2 volume in the atmosphere. The percentage of change may be great, but the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has over 50 times more effect on global warming and it is also much more volatile.

Petroleum geologists, geophysicists and petroleum engineers need to help the population to understand the scientific physical reasons for climate change and protect the public from spending exorbitant amounts of money in attempts to prevent such natural changes.

End_of_Record - Last_Page 41---------------

Copyright © 2007 by Houston Geological Society. All rights reserved.