…we are not providing the results that are most useful to support decisions in water resource management or contaminant transport and remediation.

Practicing hydrogeologists construct detailed numerical models to predict the responses of hydrologic systems to natural and applied stresses. These predictions form the basis for decisions that must balance optimal use of resources and ecosystem support. Increasingly, hydrogeologists are providing measures of the uncertainty of their predictions, often based on automated parameter estimation approaches. Dr. Ferré will build from the basic concepts of decision science to make the case that we are not providing the results that are most useful to support decisions in water resource management or contaminant transport and remediation. He will present a different approach to the construction and use of numerical models to support decision making. He will then encourage discussion and debate about the merits and limitations of this proposed approach. Finally, he will show that this new approach to hydrogeologic analysis also supports more efficient design of hydrogeologic investigations.