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The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database

AAPG Bulletin

Abstract


Volume: 63 (1979)

Issue: 3. (March)

First Page: 497

Last Page: 498

Title: Domestic Oil Reserves Forecasting Method and Assessment of Regional Potentials: ABSTRACT

Author(s): James A. Momper

Article Type: Meeting abstract

Abstract:

The forecasts of undiscovered giant oil fields in the United States, beginning with the initial study in 1960, seemingly have predicted subsequent exploration results with considerable accuracy. The probable number of undiscovered giant fields was predicted from the trend in discovery rates during previous decades.

The forecast number of undiscovered giants, multiplied by the average recoverable oil content in discovered giants, approximates the amount of recoverable oil in undiscovered giants. This value is then enlarged by the proportion of recoverable oil discovered in nongiant fields relative to giant fields. The resultant is the total undiscovered resource of new oil, using existing recovery capabilities. The quotient was adjusted upward for anticipated improvements in enhanced recovery technology to obtain the amount of ultimately recoverable oil in all undiscovered domestic fields.

Remaining reserves of discovered oil also were adjusted upward using a similar enhancement value. Based on established trends, future additions to existing reserves resulting from extensions, deeper pool, and

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shallower pool discoveries were estimated. The approximate amount of oil that eventually will be produced in the United States (the grand total of all foregoing calculations) compares favorably with conservative predictions.

For detailed study of remaining oil and gas potential in the United States, the country was divided into seven producing regions. Analysis of each region suggested the probable locales of the remaining undiscovered giant oil and gas fields. The favored producing regions in the conterminous 48 states are the Rocky Mountains, Gulf Coast province, and California offshore.

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