Abstract

Forecasts of the date of the maximum petroleum production for more than half of the world’s productive area are derived from an analysis of the past discovery and production history in the non-Communist world outside the United States and Canada. World exploratory-drilling statistics are compiled by country and by year from the annual Foreign Developments Issue of the Bulletin of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (1951-1976). A discovery-rate curve (L/well) is constructed by use of the drilling data and an estimate of past discoveries published by the Exxon Corporation. Extrapolations of past discovery rates and drilling rates are used to predict the future rate of additions to proved reserves. The extrapolation of past production rates is then used to estimate the date at which proved reserves become inadequate to maintain production. From the analysis, we predict that production for the non-Communist world outside the United States and Canada will probably peak during the 1990’s.