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The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database

GCAGS Transactions

Abstract


Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies Transactions
Vol. 68 (2018), Pages 145-162

Warming is a Benefit to Humans and the Biosphere

John Dale Dunn

Abstract

  • Warmer temperatures lead to a decrease in temperature-related mortality, including deaths associated with cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and strokes. The evidence of this benefit comes from research conducted in every major country of the world.

  • In the United States the average person who died because of cold temperature exposure lost in excess of 10 years of potential life, whereas the average person who died because of extreme heat related event lost no more than a few days or weeks of life because heat has a greater effect on more seriously debilitated and ill persons.

  • Cold-related deaths are far more numerous than heat-related deaths in the United States and the world. Coronary (heart attack) and cerebral thrombosis (stroke) account for about half of all cold-related mortality, events that are directed related to blood vessel and blood viscosity effects of cool or cold environments.

  • Global warming, if it did occur, even to the degree predicted in the extreme, will reduce the incidence of cardiovascular diseases related to low temperatures and wintry weather by a much greater degree than the warming might increase the incidence of deaths or illness attributable to heat. Heat illness primarily produces fluid and electrolyte disturbances, loss of core temperature control and organ dysfunction from dehydration, circulatory failure and heat caused stress, not clotting events.

  • The heat wave deaths of 1995 in Chicago and 2003 in Europe are pointed to by advocates of the claim that heat stress deaths will increase with any warming that might occur, but a closer look at heat event death rates in some of the studies below show acclimation increased awareness have blunted any heat stress death increases. In the case of Chicago and Europe temperatures rose to over 100 but the availability of air conditioning and ventilation along with attention to the needs of elderly and disabled individuals was determined to be a major reason for heat deaths.

  • The heat deaths that occur during severe heat events are the result of stress and inability to acclimate to maintain normal core temperature control and avoid dehydration. Acclimatization and proper attention to the vulnerable populations failed in Chicago in 1995 and Europe, particularly France in 2003, for example with hundreds of heat deaths in the former and 20,000 or more deaths in the later.

  • A large body of scientific examination and research contradicts and disproves the claim that malaria will expand across the globe and intensify as a result of CO2-induced warming. Malaria is historically a disease that was endemic to cool and even cold climates like Finland and Russia but has been suppressed by hygienic and vector control measures.

  • Concerns over large increases in vector-borne diseases such as dengue as a result of rising temperatures are unfounded and unsupported by the scientific literature, as climatic indices are poor predictors for dengue disease. The Aedes Aegypti, Anopheles, and Asian Tiger mosquitos all have been found at higher latitudes.

  • While temperature and climate effect the geographical distribution of ticks, they are not among the significant factors determining the incidence of tick-borne diseases. Moreover the effect of small increases in climate temperature, if does occur with certainly not impact the range of ticks that now live in the high latitudes, even in the mountains of those high latitudes.


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