Abstract

From a regional and historical viewpoint, petroleum exploration in East Asia, since World War II, has passed through three major phases of oil exploration and development activity. In mid-1974, the region entered into a new and fourth major phase.

The fourth phase is characterized by an overall slowdown in exploration and development activity in most of the East Asia region. It will result in fewer new exploratory wells being drilled, than were planned previously, and fewer new field wildcat discoveries being made in 1975 and 1976, and possibly for several years beyond. This phase of reduced activity is similar to an earlier period, from early 1964 to mid-1967, when as in the case today, economic and political factors, originating from both within and outside of the East Asian region, contributed to the slowdown in petroleum activity.

For 1976 and 1977, the present trend of reduced exploration activity appears irreversible, based upon existing world conditions, attitudes, government policies, new legislation and political slogans. It is forecast for this period, that the basic structure of the oil industry and, in particular, the future number and role of the private oil companies will undergo major changes. Many of these changes will probably have a long term effect on the governments of East Asia, who look toward the petroleum sector to provide their nations much needed foreign exchange savings and income.

After 1977, it is expected that the policies and decisions made by the world’s bureaucrats and professional politicians, rather than the desires of the petroleum companies, will continue to be the determining factors as to whether the undiscovered petroleum deposits of East Asia are rapidly and efficiently explored and developed.

A combination of attractive geological prospects, political stability and large potential regional markets for profitable oil and gas sales in the 1980’s, and beyond, exist in many of the nations of East Asia. Hopefully, as present detrimental attitudes, new laws and political rhetoric prove to be contrary to the interests of governments in solving the current energy crisis, these will be reversed and a new surge of exploration activity will sweep through East Asia prior to the 1980’s.