Where is the U.S. natural gas industry headed? Where is it now? How did it get where it is? Predicting the range of future formats of an industry is aided significantly by backing away from daily urgencies and examining the historical evolution of that industry to the present time.

From a geologist's perspective, the development of the U.S. natural gas industry can be organized into eras characterized by vastly different economic conditions, with organizations, activities, and policies adapted to these conditions. These eras are differentiated by the history of reserves, production, consumption and price relationships with competitive fuels. By analyzing several types of data, including those mentioned above, six eras in the evolution of the U.S. natural gas industry are clearly indicated. The PreGas Era ended in the 1920's, initiating the Era of Gas Growth, which ended in 1966. The Era of Surplus Gas ended in 1973. The year 1989 was the last year of the Era of Uneasy Equilibrium, and we are marching steadily forward in the Era of Increasing Imports. When the world runs out of gas, it will enter the PostGas Era.

The basic laws of economics are always at work. Consumption cannot exceed supply, and supply will increase to meet demand, given adequate incentives. Conventional natural gas is, however, a depleting resource, and ultimately must be replaced by energy from other sources. But that will be in the far distant future. A near-term implication is that the economics of gas exploration and development in the U.S. will improve, and opportunities for petroleum geoscientists with appropriate skills will increase.

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