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The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database
Houston Geological Society Bulletin
Abstract
Abstract: Beware of Global Cooling
By
Over the past several years the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN-IPCC) has presented a significant amount of global climate data indicating a prediction of catastrophic future increase in average global temperatures caused by an excessive influx of humangenerated carbon dioxide (CO2) from the burning of fossil fuels for the generation of human-required energy. For the most part, the UN scientific studies justifying such a conclusion are based on global climate models (GCMs) with climate simulations from computer mathematical calculations and simulations. These studies have resulted in the UN-IPCC Kyoto Protocol calling for a treaty among all nations of the world to limit or reduce the amount of atmospheric CO2 by reducing the use of fossil fuels.
This may be an interesting scientific concept, but it comes at a time
when there is no real current substitute for the generation of energy
requirements from the burning of fossil fuels. It is not believed the
global economy could afford such major
investments in that
removal
and that the
invention of unknown energy substitutes or
alternatives seems far in the future. Nor could
the growing global population afford to essentially
go back to the horse and buggy days for
many reasons. It is concluded that the experiment
would not be successful in reducing the rate of CO2 influx or
in reducing the many natural causes for climate and temperature
changes in any recognizable manner. If the experiment were successful,
it would not be adequate to overcome the many natural geologic reasons
for the perpetual climate changes demonstrated from the
historical geologic record on all time scales. The global temperature
would not be significantly changed.
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However, the form of global governments and their sovereignty,
including that of the United States, could be substantially changed by
such United Nations control. I do not believe the United States
should agree with these possibilities and ratify the Kyoto Protocol
even if it were proved that the limiting or
removal
of some small percentage
of atmospheric CO2 was possible and that it might have
some effect on the average global temperature.
There are serious questions concerning the validity of the GCMs
and their mathematical simulations because of the large number
of natural causes for climate changes, many of them unknown or
inadequately measured. The magnitude of the
effects
is
unknown, as are the interrelationships of global changes with the
attitude of the earth in relation to the sun.
A study of the paleo-geologic perspective of climate change indicated the current average global temperatures are well within the range of prior historical climates and temperature, in the past brought about by natural physical causes. The energy output from the sun has changed over geologic time. The physical surface of earth has changed, as has its attitude in relation to the radiant heat source from the sun.
This article will attempt to prove the paleo-geological relationship
with the ever-changing global climate and the futility of
attempting to change the climate by the
removal
of a small
amount of CO2 from the atmosphere.
There have been about 17 ice ages during the last 2 million years of the earth’s history. In general, ice ages last about 100,000 years and interglacial global warming periods last about 10,000 to 14,000 years. The current Holocene warming period has lasted for over 10,000 years.What do you believe is coming next in the form of major climate change? There is good geological evidence for past climate changes and good evidence that the current warming period is one of the natural changes not caused by an anthropogenic increase of a small amount of CO2 volume in the atmosphere. The percentage of change may be great, but the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has over 50 times more effect on global warming and it is also much more volatile.
Petroleum geologists, geophysicists and petroleum engineers need to help the population to understand the scientific physical reasons for climate change and protect the public from spending exorbitant amounts of money in attempts to prevent such natural changes.
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