Working in frontier exploration areas usually means facing a situation of extrapolation based on little to no available geological and geophysical data. Fundamentally, this is why an area is considered frontier in nature! In order to justify drilling a single well with costs often in excess of $40 million, addressing geologic and geophysical risk becomes important. Increasing the probability of success through scientific applications and integration of different disciplines becomes a value-adding exercise as part of our job as geoscientist.

Having worked in frontier exploration for almost 30 years, one thing has remained constant: a lack of data. The job is difficult enough to begin with. Therefore, how do we deal with convincing people to invest the millions of dollars needed to drill to find oil? I would offer that we commit the resources, integrate our technologies and develop a consistent story for our recommendations. More importantly, we need to address the geologic and geophysical risks associated with specific areas and prospects to determine where best to spend our time, energy and resources and to determine what studies will assist in the reduction of risk.

This talk is based on RepsolYPF’s ongoing efforts to maximize the Pg&g (probability of geological and geophysical success) for a frontier exploration project in the offshore deep water area of Suriname, South America. Through the multidisciplinary integration of play type analogues, biostratigraphy, sequence stratigraphy and hydrocarbon charge models, a reduced risk and increased Pg&g has been achieved. Utilization of these technologies allows for the variations in the factors in either a positive or negative direction. As geoscientists and explorationists, our charge is to tell a story based on science and to use every possible technical means available to ensure that we recommend drilling a well that is as low risk as possible.

In the pre-drill world, one is always comfortable with the recommendation and prognosis. The post-drill results often reveal a very different story!

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