ABSTRACT

Australia’s target to generate 82% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 does not necessarily mean the country will pare its total annual emissions back by 82% in that timeframe. A high renewable power share also depends on suitable firming capacity to provide reliability when variable wind and solar are not available, particularly for extended periods of time. In the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) Integrated System Plan (ISP) step-change scenario, this has been recognised by the provision of gas-fired power generation (GPG) via ‘peaking power plants’. However, the plan indicates that these peaking plants will operate at a capacity factor of just 5% by 2050. The low utilisation renders the gas expensive and inefficient in terms of firming, security and storage. An alternate view to the proposed 5% utilisation pathway is to dial up the capacity factor by backing up with carbon capture and storage (CCS) at the power generation plant. This paper presents a comparative scenario leveraging a CCS-backed power option against the proposed low-utilisation use peaking plants, specifically through examining the key levers of the energy trilemma. It also turns the spotlight on the risks and opportunities associated with each option, touching on increased pricing for infrastructure rentals in the low-utilisation option against the opportunity to leverage the oil and gas sector skills which Australia already possesses, alongside CCS skills that are already in development. This paper provides an alternative solution for low-emissions GPG, increasing their role but without the relative increase in carbon emissions – ultimately supporting reliable, affordable and sustainable power for all Australians.