ABSTRACT

Since the Queensland Curtis liquefied natural gas (QCLNG) project began exporting in 2015, coal seam gas (CSG) to LNG has significantly contributed to Australia’s economy and energy sector. Shell’s QCLNG was followed by Santos’s Gladstone LNG (GLNG) and the ConocoPhillips-led Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG). These three plants made up 28% of Australia’s LNG exports in 2023 with a combined volume of 23 mt, creating the world’s largest CSG production play. But the upstream landscape in Australia has moved significantly since these project final investment decisions (FIDs) were taken in the early 2010s. Domestic gas shortages on the east coast, along with related regulatory changes have changed market dynamics. Amendments to the safeguard mechanism have introduced additional cost and compliance obligations. Increased environmental activism and license to operate considerations are also playing an ever-increasing role in corporate decision making and future development planning. And finally, the costs and methods of developing CSG have evolved over this time. Around 10 years on from the commencement of production, this paper will review how the sector has developed and performed versus expectations. It will also analyse its future outlook. Key aspects include: field performance and reserves – how have the CSG areas tracked versus expectations at FID? How have costs and development concepts changed as industry has become more familiar with the nature of CSG? Future prospects – can CSG supply the east coast market as traditional heartlands decline? We investigate the future potential of the CSG plays in supplying both domestic and export markets, and the potential challenges and opportunities.