When preceding events influence succeeding events, a certain probability can be calculated for the process, which is said to possess the Markov property. An increasing number of geologic processes have been described that demonstrate this property, and the behavior of exploration geologists frequently is no exception. Markov methods allow a reasonably limited number of exploration factors to be considered together on a probability basis. A particular advantage is that factors having different dimensions, such as barrels of oil, the density of seismic coverage, or the cost of drilling, can be evaluated together for forecasting purposes.

Small Markov studies can be undertaken without a computer, but for larger models it is both simple and desirable to use a computer. A forecasting model should include consideration of environmental conditions (the historical events), the alternative choices (the possible outcomes from which the optimum forecast may be derived), and the weight attached to each factor.

Forecasts can be made for two general areas. Within a company, the exploration environment conducive to success is worthy of investigation, as is the efficiency of the exploration process. From a competitive viewpoint, the behavior of other companies is of interest as advantage can be taken of any known Markov tendencies in their exploration policies. Geologists should use Markov methods to reduce the uncertainty of decision making to finite probability. This will result in an increased success ratio.

End_of_Article - Last_Page 728------------