At no time in the history of petroleum geology has the need for marshaling our scientific knowledge and professional skill been more necessary than it is today. As a result of the mature stage of development in most United States petroleum-producing areas and recent concentration on close-in exploration targets, the barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) discovered per foot of new-field wildcat drilled has declined from 350+ in the late 1940s to 53 in the late 1970s.

If the decline in discovery per unit of drilling continues, and approximately the same rate of drilling is maintained, by 1990 the discoveries per foot in new-field wildcat wells are projected to be 24 BOE. If the rate of exploratory drilling is increased in the early 1980s, the discovery rate will decline more drastically.

Our knowledge of oil and gas source materials, source-bed maturation, mechanisms and time of primary migration has expanded greatly during past decades and new insights will be added in the 1980s. Stratigraphic and sedimentational concepts, methods of identifying depositional environments, tectonic and structural principles, and details of geologic history will continue to play prominent roles in our intensive probing of the frontiers of geologic knowledge. Pressure-temperature relations, origins of abnormally high or low pressures, and the delineation of hydrodynamic versus hydrostatic conditions have become increasingly important in understanding trap formation; more precise measurements and interpretation are essential in future exploration.

The role of the geologist in interpreting geophysical measurements, especially in seismic stratigraphy and mechanical logs, will grow in importance. Knowledge of the principles of petroleum geology will continue to be important in oil- and gas-field development, in enhanced recovery, and in uranium, coal, geothermal, and tar-sands exploration or exploitation.

With these increasing complexities and the resulting professional opportunities, it is unfortunate that so few universities have a meaningful program specifically designed for educating petroleum geologists. The developing surplus of bachelor-level geology graduates probably will be followed in the late 1980s by a shortage, i.e.,

End_Page 720------------------------------

another supply/demand cycle. The opportunities for advanced-degree graduates probably will continue during this decade and the energy crisis should guarantee a long and exciting professional career.

The intense search for non-Arab, non-OPEC oil-producing areas in the world will continue. The present 28/1 reserves/production ratio of world oil probably will not decline rapidly as long as OPEC nations restrict production to levels significantly below capacity. Other nations with recently expanded oil-production capacity may choose also to maintain moderate export levels. High import prices, supply insecurity, and balance-of-payments problems will keep extreme pressure on production of domestic oil and gas, coal, atomic energy, hydroelectric power, synthetic fuels, and other energy alternatives. In addition, strong compulsory conservation measures probably will be imposed. Rapidly rising leasing, exploration, and production costs and their relation to wellhead prices (minus tax) may result in a deterrent to U.S. oil and gas production.

The outcome of environmental, political, and economic constraints on domestic energy production is more problematic than are the scientific and technologic questions. Three-fourths of our oil and gas reserves and production are in giant fields. Most future discoveries of large fields will be in the frontier areas, largely offshore and in Alaska. National energy policy should encourage exploration in frontier areas, in addition to conservation and development of other energy sources.

End_of_Article - Last_Page 721------------