About This Item

Share This Item

The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database

AAPG Bulletin


Volume: 68 (1984)

Issue: 4. (April)

First Page: 459

Last Page: 459

Title: The Exploration Decision: How Much Skill? How Much Luck?: ABSTRACT

Author(s): Ed Capen


Winning or losing on a simple flip of a fair coin has nothing to do with skill and absolutely everything to do with luck. Calling the flip should be one of the lowest paying jobs around, as no schooling whatsoever is required--a monkey in the zoo would suffice. Winning the 100-m dash at the Olympics has virtually everything to do with skill--reaction to the starting gun, the start, leg and arm motion, and concentration, for example.

The exploration decision (with elements of both luck and skill) requires a mixture of several talents if it is to bring forth the highest satisfaction, however measured: organizational abilities, factual knowledge, odds (chance) knowledge, calculation/assimilation knowledge, information integration skills, and perhaps even some mysticism. We want to examine the exploration decision process in a way that will allow us to get a better handle on the worth of these talents and the value of the information they deliver.

If we fail to come up with anything better, we can always award the decision job to the (choose one): (a) best salesman, (b) best dresser, (c) best oil finder, (d) nearest engineer, (e) most charismatic, (f) banker's nephew, (g) Bozo, the Gorilla.

End_of_Article - Last_Page 459------------

Copyright 1997 American Association of Petroleum Geologists