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The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database

AAPG Bulletin

Abstract


Volume: 69 (1985)

Issue: 1. (January)

First Page: 106

Last Page: 118

Title: Improved Statistical Method for Assessment of Undiscovered Petroleum Resources

Author(s): David J. Forman, Alan L. Hinde (2)

Abstract:

A statistically significant straight-line correlation exists between logarithms of oil or gas field sizes and order of discovery in some of Australia's petroleum provinces. The correlation is predicted by the hypotheses (1) that the probability of discovery of each field is proportional to size raised to a constant power, lambda (^lgr), and (2) that fields are discovered without replacement from a population with a lognormal size distribution.

A computer program has been developed that uses extrapolations of the straight line to predict the number and size of future discoveries. The program takes into account a dependent relationship among lambda and the average slope and intercept of the fitted lines and the average Previous HitstandardNext Hit Previous HitdeviationTop of the residuals that is indicated by the hypotheses. The new-field wildcat drilling required is estimated using predicted success rates.

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