A one-dimensional process response-type model has been set up to simulate geologic processes of compaction, heat transfer, source rock maturation, and hydrocarbon generation and expulsion during a basin's development. The model can be used to calculate the quantity of oil and/or gas expelled from a source rock under certain conditions. Although the model simplifies chemical and physical conditions within sedimentary rocks, it may be used as a first approximation in geologic reconstructions of sedimentary basins.

When applied to the Niigata area, Japan, the model predicted the most significant parameters associated with hydrocarbon expulsion, including the rate of burial and the quantity of hydrocarbons generated. The model also revealed that the time of hydrocarbon expulsion varied from place to place even within the small, northern Niigata basin. Major petroleum fields formed when expulsion (favorable timing) coincided with the development of structure; thus, a realistic estimate of the timing of expulsion is a key to hydrocarbon exploration.