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Abstract
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Uncertainties
in Reservoir Production Forecasts1 Oddvar Lia,Henning
Omre,Håkon Tjelmeland,Lars Holden,and
Thore Egeland2 |
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ABSTRACT Being aware of uncertainties in forecasts
of production characteristics is important for reservoir management. Decisions
concerning further appraisal drilling, flexibility in development plans,
and selection among reservoir prospects all require that uncertainties
are taken into account. This study addresses the problem of quantifying
uncertainties due to incomplete knowledge of the initial reservoir characteristics,
with emphasis on the difference between heterogeneity modeling and assessment
of uncertainty. In this study we outline a formalism for uncertainty modeling
in a Bayesian framework and present an extensive case study of a North
Sea Brent Group reservoir. The results are obtained by computer software
implemented such that no human interference is required once the stochastic
reservoir model is established. Once the stochastic reservoir model is
established, multiple realizations can be generated, rescaled, and fed
into a fluid flow simulator to forecast production characteristics and
quantify uncertainty associated with response parameters such as cumulative
oil production, recovery factors, and water cuts. The results demonstrate
that uncertainty in model parameters contributes significantly to the overall
uncertainty. The most influential parameters in our case study include
the sealing capacity of major faults, seismic velocities used in depth
conversion, and average porosities and shale continuity within the main
reservoir sandstone. |
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