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The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database
AAPG Bulletin
Abstract
AAPG FOUNDATION PRATT CONFERENCE: PETROLEUM PROVINCES,
21st CENTURY
January 12-15, 2000
San Diego, California
DAVID
DEMING
Although the conventional oil supplies are finite, it has proven difficult
to estimate the size of the ultimate resource. Over the last 50 years estimates
of the size of the world's conventional crude oil resources have increased
faster than cumulative production. The estimated size of the ultimate resource
base will continue to increase in the future as unconventional fossil fuels
come on line. Oil production from Canadian tar sands has already begun.
Unconventional oil resources such as tar sands and oil shales will eventually
replace conventional oil and ensure a supply of petroleum for a period
of time somewhere on the order of 100 to 1000 years. The only uncertainty
concerns the nature of the transition from conventional to unconventional
oil resources. The transition may be slow and seamless with no economic
disruptions, or it may be characterized by a difficult transition period.
In the long run, nuclear power has the potential to provide large amounts
of power for very long periods of time if low-grade uranium is used in
breeder reactors. The technology and resources to utilize nuclear power
already exist. Limitations on the energy used by our technological civilization
are not imposed by finite resources, but by social and political attitudes.