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AAPG Bulletin

Abstract

AAPG Bulletin, V. 88, No. 9 (September 2004), P. 1211-1220.

Copyright copy2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Previous HitClimateNext Hit change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

Lee C. Gerhard 1

1Kansas Geological Survey, Lawrence, Kansas 66047; present affiliation: Thomasson Partner Associates, Denver, Colorado; author contact: 1628 Alvamar Drive, Lawrence, Kansas 66047; [email protected]

AUTHOR

Lee C. Gerhard has a career of academic, government, and industry leadership. Gerhard is the senior editor and author of the 2001 book Geological Perspectives of Global Previous HitClimateNext Hit Change, published by AAPG. A petroleum geologist, his current research interest is mitigating significant conflicts between earth resource development and environmental qual ity and public education about resource issues. He is an honorary member of AAPG.

ABSTRACT

Debate over whether human activity causes Earth Previous HitclimateNext Hit change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain Previous HitclimateNext Hit on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent what they perceive as negative Previous HitclimateNext Hit impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global Previous HitclimateNext Hit continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global Previous HitclimateNext Hit changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that Previous HitclimateNext Hit will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes.

Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on Previous HitclimateNext Hit to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural Previous HitclimateNext Hit drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past Previous HitclimateNext Hit change, the extent of natural Previous HitclimateNext Hit variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many Previous HitclimateNext Hit changes.

The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on Previous HitclimateNext Hit to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global Previous HitclimateNext Hit change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in Previous HitclimateNext Hit science and arguments about human influence on Previous HitclimateTop.

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