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The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database
AAPG Bulletin
Abstract
AAPG Bulletin, V.
2006. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.
DOI:10.1306/01160605050
Geological risk mapping and prospect evaluation using multivariate and Bayesian statistical methods, western Sverdrup Basin of Canada
Zhuoheng Chen,1 Kirk G. Osadetz2
1Geological 
Survey
of Canada, 3303-33rd Street, NW, Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2L 2A7; [email protected]
2Geological Survey
of Canada, 3303-33rd Street, NW, Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2L 2A7; [email protected]
ABSTRACT
The current practice of geological risk evaluation at the play level involves substantial subjectivity and rarely considers the spatial correlations among the identified prospects. A quantitative procedure using multivariate and Bayesian statistical methods is proposed, which treats exploration-risk evaluation as a two-group classification, to provide a more objective and reproducible result. The spatial correlation among the identified prospects is considered because the proposed approach is applied to the entire evaluation area. The exploration-risk evaluation of the Upper Triassic–Lower Jurassic Heiberg Group structural gas play in western Sverdrup Basin, Arctic Canada, illustrates the method.
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