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AAPG Bulletin
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AAPG Bulletin; Year: 2016; Issue: February DOI: 10.1306/08101515059
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Figure 3. (A) Application of the Laplace (1774) sunrise problem, estimating the mean chance of success from the observation of a succession of 1 to 11 successful results. (B) Application of the rule of succession to estimate the mean chance of success based on a series of 1 to 11 results, including success and failure outcomes.
Figure 3. (A) Application of the Laplace (1774) sunrise problem, estimating the mean chance of success from the observation of a succession of 1 to 11 successful results. (B) Application of the rule of succession to estimate the mean chance of success based on a series of 1 to 11 results, including success and failure outcomes.