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AAPG Bulletin

Abstract

AAPG Bulletin, V. 106, No. 8 (August 2022), P. 1547-1556.

Copyright ©2022. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

DOI: 10.1306/04132221076

An approach for quantifying structural interpretation uncertainty

Kellen L. Gunderson1 and Chris A. Guzofski2

1Chevron Technical Center, Houston, Texas; present address: Zanskar Geothermal & Minerals, Inc., Provo, Utah; [email protected]
2Chevron Technical Center, Houston, Texas; [email protected]

Abstract

Hydrocarbon resource and risk assessments rely on subsurface structure maps generated from the interpretation of seismic reflection and well data. Commonly, the uncertainty in these maps is poorly quantified and communicated, primarily because there has not been a holistic workflow that addresses all aspects of structural interpretation uncertainty, including the geological hypotheses underlying a structure map. Unquantified and uncommunicated uncertainty can lead to exploration well failures or poorly designed field development plans. Here, we present three parallel workflows that quantify structural interpretation uncertainty by addressing the following questions. (1) How much does a structure map rely on a conceptual geologic model in its creation? (2) What is the three-dimensional positional uncertainty range of the horizon and faults in a structure map, given a choice in conceptual geological model? (3) What is the uncertainty in the conceptual geologic model itself? The products of these workflows are a series of maps that, in summation, address these aspects of structural interpretation uncertainty and can be used to quantify and communicate trap geometry predrill uncertainty or uncertainty in development scenarios.

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