About This Item
- Full TextFull Text(subscription required)
- Pay-Per-View PurchasePay-Per-View
Purchase Options Explain
Share This Item
The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database
AAPG Bulletin
Abstract
DOI: 10.1306/01122322066
Direct projection of remaining potential from historical discoveries
Kenneth C. Hood,1 Ian M. Longley,2 Paul Ventris,3 and Jerry Jarvis4
1Geologist, Monument, Colorado; [email protected]
2GIS-pax Pty Ltd., Perth, Australia; [email protected]
3GIS-pax Pty Ltd., Perth, Australia; [email protected]
4S&P Global Commodity Insights, London, United Kingdom; [email protected]
Abstract
The number, sizes, and temporal trends of hydrocarbon discoveries can be used to project the remaining potential for a basin or area of interest. This paper describes a simple graphical method for projecting number and size of potential future discoveries. The graphical approach enables adjustments for geological characterization, exploration maturity, and basin complexity. The method requires enough discoveries to define the presumed parent population on a log
-
log
plot of discovery size versus size rank. A breakpoint separates the presumed parent population from the undersampled part of the distribution. Potential breakpoints can be identified by comparing an interval slope above and below each discovery.
Larger discoveries are typically made early in the exploration process. Plots of cumulative discovered volume versus discovery number illustrate this effect through progressive flattening. Although the creaming effect is well
established, basins can differ in this regard. We introduce a measure of basin complexity such that in higher-complexity basins some larger discoveries are made later. Accounting for basin complexity is essential for projection of future potential. Some basins contain outlier fields that are larger than expected based on the parent population (also known as king fields), and these too must be accounted for by the projection method.
Discovered fields for a basin typically approximate a lognormal distribution, likely a result of sampling bias in the exploration process. To mimic this pattern, a subset of smaller fields is excluded from the predicted future discoveries using an approach linked to the presumed economic minimum.
Pay-Per-View Purchase Options
The article is available through a document delivery service. Explain these Purchase Options.
Watermarked PDF Document: $14 | |
Open PDF Document: $24 |
AAPG Member?
Please login with your Member username and password.
Members of AAPG receive access to the full AAPG Bulletin Archives as part of their membership. For more information, contact the AAPG Membership Department at [email protected].