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AAPG Bulletin, Preliminary version published online Ahead of Print 15 August 2024.

Copyright © 2024. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

DOI:10.1306/07232424014

Pore pressure thresholds associated with seismogenic fault slip in the Midland Basin, West Texas, United States

Peter Hennings, Jun Ge, Elizabeth Horne, Katie Smye, and J-P Nicot

Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78758, USA

Ahead of Print Abstract

Injection of wastewater from unconventional oil development in the Midland Basin into strata between productive shales and crystalline basement totals over 6 billion barrels 2010-2023 and rate reaching over 70 million barrels per month. This injection is associated with an increased rate of earthquakes in the upper basement including more than 170 ML3.0+ events. To understand how injection and subsequent pore pressure change (ΔPp) cause the earthquakes, we integrate earthquake occurrence with new fault interpretations, slip potential, and estimates of ΔPp from comprehensive geologic inputs to determine the injection rates and Pp thresholds associated with earthquake cluster onset.

Local cluster onset is associated with ΔPp from 37 to 529 psi (0.26–3.65 MPa) with a mean of 216 psi (1.5 MPa) and ΔPp gradient ranging from 0.458 to 0.555 psi/ft (0.010–0.012 MPa/m). Onset is associated with a variety of ΔPp histories, especially strong month to month ΔPp variability. There is a close spatiotemporal relationship between the rates of injection, ΔPp, change in critically stressed fault segment length, and seismicity. There is a loose coupling of +ΔPp and earthquake cluster development but there is a temporally tight spatiotemporal coupling of -ΔPp and earthquake rate decrease. There is a distinct contrast in the rupture sensitivity of the fault systems as subject to ΔPp, with areas in the south and southwest (65–80 psi, 0.49–0.55 MPa) activated with smaller changes as compared to areas in the north (235 psi, 1.62 MPa). This indicates that dynamic injection capacity is inherently smaller in the south as compared to the north.

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Please cite this AAPG Bulletin Ahead of Print article as:

Peter Hennings, Jun Ge, Elizabeth Horne, Katie Smye, J-P Nicot: Pore pressure thresholds associated with seismogenic fault slip in the Midland Basin, West Texas, United States, (in press; preliminary version published online Ahead of Print 15 August 2024: AAPG Bulletin, DOI:10.1306/07232424014.

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