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AAPG Bulletin, Preliminary version published online Ahead of Print 15 January 2026.

Copyright © 2026. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

DOI:10.1306/01092623097

Paleokarst reservoir architecture derived from forward modelling of modern cave systems - A case study

Bjarte Lønøy12 , Christos Pennos23 , Jan Tveranger1 , Ilias Fikos4 , George Vargemezis4 , and Stein-Erik Lauritzen2

1 NORCE – Norwegian Research Centre AS
2 University of Bergen, Department of Earth Science
3 Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Physical Geography
4 Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Department of Geophysics

Ahead of Print Abstract

In some of the world’s largest hydrocarbon provinces infilled and collapsed cave systems are an essential component for many paleokarst reservoirs. Conceptual modelling methods for this reservoir type are relatively sparse in the literature and often fail to simulate collapse processes realistically or forecast sediment infill. This study proposes a new concept-driven approach to paleokarst reservoir modelling. A novel interactive forward collapse modelling tool is developed to evaluate cavern stability and simulate collapse and infill processes of recent karst systems. The proposed tool uses a combination of cave survey data, conventional field measurements and geomechanical data to simulate post-collapse morphologies and to generate new spatial data suitable for generating point-clouds. The collapse propagation, and the affected volume, is controlled by user-defined paleokarst facies proportions and associated average porosities. The point-clouds representing the various facies are used for Previous HitgeometricNext Hit modelling and subsequent geocellular rendering. Inherent clastic sediments are discretized by horizon mapping and Previous HitgeometricNext Hit modelling using electrical resistivity data as input. The volumetric and Previous HitgeometricNext Hit accuracy of the reservoir models is compared to the simulated values and morphologies of the forward collapse modelling. Additionally, the interlinkage between bedding dip and cavern stability is appraised. This study demonstrates that our proposed method can be used to simulate collapse and infill processes of recent caves systems and generate paleokarst reservoir model analogues. Post-collapse morphologies can be simulated and subsequently rendered in a geocellular framework with a relatively high Previous HitgeometricTop and volumetric precision by employing easily accessible data. In turn, this could offer better constraints to forecast fluid flow behavior and seismic responses of paleokarst reservoirs given different collapse scenarios.

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Please cite this AAPG Bulletin Ahead of Print article as:

Bjarte Lønøy , Christos Pennos , Jan Tveranger , Ilias Fikos , George Vargemezis , Stein-Erik Lauritzen: Paleokarst reservoir architecture derived from forward modelling of modern cave systems - A case study, (in press; preliminary version published online Ahead of Print 15 January 2026: AAPG Bulletin, DOI:10.1306/01092623097.

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