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The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database

Environmental Geosciences (DEG)

Abstract

 

DOI: 10.1046/j.1526-0984.2001.84005.x

Multiple Transport of Hazardous Material: Probabilities of Profitability

IAN LERCHE

Department of Geological Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208

ABSTRACT

The transport of hazardous material can involve catastrophes occurring, particularly when multiple transport trips are made. This article shows how a corporation can estimate the likelihood of being able to make a profit from a large number of such trips, with due allowance being included of the potential for a catastrophic event. The main emphasis is on estimating and updating the probability of a catastrophe based on information from prior trips. In addition, a procedure is given for allowing a corporation to decide whether it is better to buy out of a contract to transport hazardous material based on anticipated revenues including the hazard potential of a catastrophe occurring. Several numerical examples are provided to show how such estimating procedures operate in practice.

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