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The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database
GCAGS Transactions
Abstract
A Mathematical Model to Predict Estimated Future Recoverables
William A. Fidler (1), Larry Pierce (1)
ABSTRACT
This paper describes an automated mathematical model developed to evaluate historical production data and predict future reservoir performance using decline curve analysis. The model is designed to predict future well response on an annual basis for basins, formations, fields and reservoirs. A typical well profile is created for formations and reservoirs which is representative of all producing wells within each formation and reservoir. The methodology developed uses the typical well profile as a "type curve" and applies a history-matching linear regression procedure to ensure unbiased estimates are attainable. Statistical measures of quality control are incorporated to assure confidence in the performance prediction. The assumptions and estimates are validated with case studies of existing field data.
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