Abstract

This paper shows how, with the help of scenario techniques the world energy situation can be analysed. Contrary to widespread notions the scenario approach can help to eliminate many uncertainties and points to predetermined elements in the future energy equation. Armed with a better understanding of the forces at work in the economic, societal, geo-political and energy fields an appropriate action programme can be designed to cope with the inevitable uncertainties of the future.

A key feature which emerges is that the world has so far consumed no more than about 1/5th of the ultimate recoverable oil reserves and this may still be a conservative assessment. The remaining oil reserves suffice to meet world oil requirements at least until the middle of the next century. This will require an immense effort to locate and develop new reserves and to initiate supplementary recovery programmes. The above is based on the conclusion, under all scenarios, that world output and hence consumption will plateau and that most incremental requirements for energy will be met from coal and natural gas, with the latter being a particularly attractive source in this energy transition process. Nevertheless oil will still provide almost half the world's energy needs by the year 2000 under all reasonable scenario permutations.