Abstract

In the present euphoria of heavy construction activity in the petrochemical world, certain very legitimate questions are being asked. How long is this boom going to last? Isn't this going to lead to another prolonged down period? Indeed, some analysts are predicting a global recession and a collapse of the over-built petrochemical industry. Our own view is more upbeat.

The current growth rate of petrochemical demand in the developed countries is unlikely to be sustained. In contrast to this, we expect that the international petrochemical demand will continue on a overall upward trend for many more years. The compelling socio-economic and political reasons for this projection are discussed.

This paper further outlines a number of strategies that can be employed by the developing countries in the ASEAN region with particular emphasis on the situation in Indonesia. A plan for controlled growth that will maximize the use of national resources is presented. Win-win strategies that will benefit all parties are discussed.

In the specific context of Indonesia, these strategies include backward integration, active participation of international companies, use of local engineering contractors and appropriate technology. The crucial services of an experienced managing contractor for overall planning and coordination are discussed together with the concept of long-term partnering.