Abstract

During the past decade, industry has spent in excess of US$4 billion to discover approximately 4 billion barrels equivalent in the deep water portions of the Gulf of Mexico. At least 25 potentially developable accumulations have been found, proving the presence of world-class reservoirs and widespread hydrocarbon charge. Significant advances in exploration technology, such as large-area 3D seismic surveys, have reduced the risks in predicting reservoir distribution, facies architecture and trapping geometries. New or developing technology exists to develop this resource, however due to the high development costs, long lead-times and associated financial risks in the face of weak price forecasts and technical uncertainties, only a small fraction of this resource has been developed and produced. Federal authorities appreciate the risks associated with exploiting this large volume opportunity, and have responded with reduced royalty rates and extended lease terms to stimulate development. Nonetheless, the technical community still faces a severe challenge to improve profitability by reducing costs, risks, lead-time and uncertainties.

Shell Offshore Inc. leads the industry with 35% of the leased acreage in the deep water Gulf of Mexico. Shell demonstrated that drilling technology exists to safely explore in extreme water depths when, in 1987, they set the world water depth drilling record with a wildcat in 2,292m (7,520 ft) of water. Shell's Bullwinkle platform, set in 1988 in 411m (1,350 ft) of water, is the world's tallest fixed platform. Shell's Auger Tension Leg Platform (TLP) set the world water depth record when it was installed in 872m (2,860 ft) of water late in 1993, and began production in early 1994. The company plans to break its own record in 1996 with the installation of the Mars TLP in 894m (2,933 ft) of water. Initial oil and gas production will begin from the $1.2 billion first phase Mars development more than eleven years after lease acquisition.

This paper reviews the geology of Shell's Bullwinkle, Auger, and Mars fields and then considers the economic feasibility of developing comparable fields in Indonesia utilizing the current Indonesian deep water contract terms. We hope to demonstrate that due to the risks and uncertainties associated with the deep water play, capital outlays of this magnitude over extended periods prior to production are only economically viable when the host government provides favorable lease terms. Potential deep water opportunities have already been recognized in basins throughout the world. The technology exists to capitalize on this huge volume opportunity, but the prospects cannot be exploited until the proper economic incentives are in place.