Abstract

Three major problems related to petroleum face the world today: (1) the geographic and political imbalance between the users and producers of petroleum; (2) the forthcoming arrival of the USSR in the world oil market place; (3) the 78 have-not nations where almost all energy is imported at steadily increasing and unaffordable prices.

The Middle East and the USSR are judged to have most of the world’s future oil potential. The USA by contrast is highly explored and most of the future potential in North America lies in Canada and Mexico. Apart from Canada and the UK, the industrialized nations of the Free World are major importers of petroleum. In spite of its potential the USSR is relatively unexplored due to backward technology and will experience an oil shortfall by the mid-1980s. Lacking the currency to pay for major imports, the USSR seeks control of major oil producing states. A principal aim of Soviet policy is to control: (1) a crescent extending from Algeria through the Middle East to the Arctic and containing 68% of the world’s proved petroleum reserves; (2) a second crescent to the south and east containing 61% of the world’s non-hydrocarbon minerals.

Soviet actions in these areas threaten the Free World and the failure of US leadership to understand the energy problem in the context of global events is frightening. The USA has no coherent petroleum policy and the effect of legislation and regulations in the United States is to discourage much-needed exploration. Steps to make the Free World independent of Middle East oil and Soviet designs must begin now. Military preparedness is necessary and it is essential to begin the formidable task of converting to alternate forms of energy. Dependence on hydrocarbon fuels is an essential stop-gap measure, with emphasis on the cleanest fuel — gas. The situation can be turned around if the will is there.