AAPG/Datapages Discovery Series (CD-ROM) No. 1
ABSTRACT: Risk Analysis: Lessons Learned
By J.A. Alexander, SPE and J.R. Lohr, Spirit Energy 76, Unocal

Copyright © 2000 by The American Association of Petroleum Geologists
Originally presented at the 1998 Hedberg (AAPG) Research Conference at Galveston, TX
Book/CD-ROM Title: Integration of Geologic Models for Understanding Risk in the Gulf of Mexico (2000).
Edited by Robert Shoup, Joel Watkins, John Karlo, and Dave Hall

Abstract

During the past 30 years the petroleum industry has generated significant information on risk analysis methods for exploration and development projects. However, some people continue to ask the question "Is it worth the effort?" or comment "It has not worked for me."

The authors have learned many lessons during the past few years that resulted in an improved risk analysis process. The following recommendations will ensure a successful risk analysis process.

1.  Written guidelines are necessary to avoid misapplication of established methods. These guidelines should be well documented, communicated to everyone involved in the process and regularly updated.

2.  Oversight of the risk evaluation process is necessary to maintain consistency, eliminate bias, and check for misinterpretations that occur through lack of understanding.

3.  Risk analysis training for both technical professionals and management is essential.

4.  Evaluation software should be accessible, standardized, easy to use and adaptable to changing technology and needs.

5.  An understanding of dependency between variables is vital.

6.  Risk methods should be adaptive to allow integration of new techniques, such as seismic direct hydrocarbon indicators (DHCIs), into the process.

Results from risked projects should be understood and tracked closely over time to facilitate adjustments and enhancements to the methods.