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The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database
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Abstract
Thermal
Histories: How Important Are
Thermal Conductivity Data?
2.
Modeling Thermal Histories: How Important Are Thermal Conductivity Data?
Kerry Gallagher
Imperial College of Science, Technology and Engineering, London, England, U.K.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I would like to thank Dale Issler, Dave Morrow, S
ren Nielsen, Mike Middleton, and Malcolm Sambridge for many insightful discussions and comments on various aspects of this work over the years. Elf Aquitaine and NERC have provided financial support for related work.
ABSTRACT
Thermal conductivity data used in basin-scale modeling have relatively large uncertainties, even if based on good-quality laboratory data. Consequently, these uncertainties in thermal conductivity may lead to similar magnitude relative uncertainties in any thermal history reconstruction. The potential scale of these uncertainties is considered, and an inverse thermal history modeling approach is combined with Monte Carlo sampling to assess the thermal history uncertainties in a real-data situation, using vitrinite reflectance data to constrain the thermal history model. The results show that the uncertainties are considerably less than what might be expected from a linear error analysis on the thermal conductivities. This reassuring inference arises as a consequence of the feedback between thermal conductivity and heat flow, which vary sympathetically to maintain an overall similar thermal
history.
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