AAPG Memoir 74, Chapter 2: Twenty-First-Century Energy: Decline of Fossil Fuel, Increase of Renewable Nonpolluting Energy Sources, by J. D. Edwards, Pages 21-34
from: AAPG Memoir 74: Petroleum Provinces of the Twenty-first Century, Edited by Marlan W. Downey, Jack C. Threet, and William A. Morgan
Copyright 2001 by The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Chapter 2
Twenty-first-century Energy: Decline of Fossil Fuel,
Increase of Renewable Nonpolluting Energy Sources

John D. Edwards
Energy and Minerals Applied Research Center
University of Colorado
Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.

ABSTRACT

The world must prepare for the transition to renewable nonpolluting energy sources to ensure the continuous flow of energy to the increasing population and expanding economies. World oil supply will meet demand until the peak plateau of world oil production is reached, which is estimated to be between the years 2010 and 2030. Ultimate oil recovery will range from a conservative 2750 billion barrels of oil (BBO) or an optimistic 3670 BBO. Declining production after peak oil production occurs will cause a global energy gap to develop because energy demand will continue to grow. This gap can be avoided by advance planning. Energy conservation, improved energy efficiency, expanded production of unconventional oil, and conversion of natural gas to liquids will help to extend the time of peak oil production. The long-term solution to energy supply is conversion to renewable, nonpolluting energy sources, which include solar, nuclear, hydroelectric, geothermal, wind, biomass, and hydrogen. Solar, nuclear, and hydrogen energy should become major power sources in the twenty-first century.