About This Item
- Full TextFull Text(subscription required)
- Pay-Per-View PurchasePay-Per-View
Purchase Options Explain
Share This Item
The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database
AAPG Special Volumes
Abstract
Hollis, Cathy, Simon Price, Harm Dijk, Lingli Wei, Daniela Frese, Michiel van Rijen, and Mohamed Al Salhi,
DOI:10.1306/13301412M963482
2011 by The American Association of Petroleum Geologists.
Uncertainty Management in a Giant Fractured Carbonate Field, Oman, Using Experimental Design
Cathy Hollis,1 Simon Price,2 Harm Dijk,3 Lingli Wei,4 Daniela Frese,5 Michiel van Rijen,6 Mohamed Al Salhi7
1Shell International Exploration and Production, Rijswijk, The Netherlands; present address: School of Earth, Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Williamson Building, M13 9PL, United Kingdom
2Shell International Exploration and Production, Rijswijk, The Netherlands
3Shell International Exploration and Production, Rijswijk, The Netherlands
4Shell International Exploration and Production, Rijswijk, The Netherlands
5Shell International Exploration and Production, Rijswijk, The Netherlands
6Petroleum Development Oman LLC, Muscat, Sultanate of Oman
7Petroleum Development Oman LLC, Muscat, Sultanate of Oman
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors are extremely grateful to the Ministry of Oil and Gas, Oman, Petroleum Development Oman, and Shell International Exploration and Production for permission to publish this work. This chapter incorporates input from a large team and, in particular, we thank Martin de Keijzer and Salah Dhahab for assistance with fracture models, and Quintin Davies, Deborah Bliefnick, and Boris Kostic of Badley Ashton and Associates for the core sedimentologic characterization. This work was initiated by Fopper Visser and Raoul Timmerman who are thanked for their guidance and support throughout the course of the study.
ABSTRACT
The purpose of this chapter is to provide a workflow for modeling uncertainty. It focuses upon a mature (brown) field redevelopment in a giant fractured carbonate field in Oman. We used experimental design to constrain the range and impact of individual parameters on production forecasts using historical field performance data. The approach allowed for an assessment of the interaction and impact of the uncertainty for a large number of subsurface parameters with a manageable number of model runs. A priori assumptions of the uncertainty range of each parameter were first modeled and then challenged during initial screening runs. Subsequently, historical data were used to constrain the uncertainty range of those parameters that were sensitive to past production performance. The uncertainty range of all other parameters was carried forward into the production forecast, and their impact on various development options was tested. The results of this work were input into a data gathering and pilot production plan to further delimit uncertainty ranges and to help select and optimize development options.
Pay-Per-View Purchase Options
The article is available through a document delivery service. Explain these Purchase Options.
| Watermarked PDF Document: $14 | |
| Open PDF Document: $24 |