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Abstract

Caers, Jef, and Celine Scheidt, 2011, Integration of engineering and geological uncertainty for reservoir performance prediction using a distance-based approach, in Y. Z. Ma and P. R. La Pointe, eds., Uncertainty analysis and reservoir modeling: AAPG Memoir 96, P. 191202.

DOI:10.1306/13301414M963032

Copyright copy2011 by The American Association of Petroleum Geologists.

Integration of Engineering and Geological Uncertainty for Reservoir Performance Prediction Using a Distance-Based Approach

Jef Caers,1 Celine Scheidt2

1Energy Resources Engineering Department, Stanford University, Stanford, California, U.S.A.
2Energy Resources Engineering Department, Stanford University, Stanford, California, U.S.A.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We thank Chevron for providing data for the first case study and Marathon Oil for providing data for the second case study.

ABSTRACT

Uncertainty is an integral part of risk and decision making. Uncertainty in the reservoir is caused by a lack of knowledge on key geologic and reservoir engineering factors that are required for building geologic and flow models. Traditional approaches to modeling uncertainty, such as those relying on the experimental design technique and Monte Carlo simulation, are either limited in effectiveness (unable to handle general cases) or efficiency (too demanding on the central processing unit). We review a new technique for modeling reservoir performance uncertainty that is more general and efficient. The technique relies on the definition of a distance between any two reservoir models. This distance should correlate with the difference in reservoir response and provides the key missing link between geologic uncertainty and flow uncertainty. We present a workflow combining several statistical tools such as multidimensional scaling and clustering to model reservoir response uncertainty when both geologic and engineering parameters are uncertain. At the same time, this workflow allows assessment of the most influential parameters regarding flow, as well as accuracy of the uncertainty assessment. Two real field cases illustrate this approach.

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