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The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database
Utah Geological Association
Abstract
Risk-Benefit Evaluation of Flood Mitigation Schemes for Great Salt Lake
Abstract
Investment decisions on the management of flood prone land and on measures to reduce potential flood damages around the Great Salt Lake require estimates of the risks (probability) and consequences of future flooding in order to estimate the potential benefits from the various mitigation alternatives. Such estimates have been made using a risk-benefit methodology developed at Utah State University. The methodology includes a multivariate stochastic model of lake water balance variables (i.e., surface inflows, precipitation and evaporation) for estimating the probability of future lake flooding and a model for simulating lakeside property management response in order to estimate flood damages.
The evaluation of flood mitigation alternatives for the Great Salt Lake is presented in this paper within a risk-assessment framework. Employing this framework, the paper begins with the identification of those factors which affect both the probability and consequence dimensions of flooding risk, and it continues with a description of the procedures and illustrative results for estimation of both risk dimensions under the do-nothing and various flood mitigation (risk-aversion) alternatives. It closes with a discussion of the risk-benefit evaluation process within which Utah is grappling with decisions on the degree of flood protection to provide.
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