In 1980-81, Australia exported 47.4 million tonnes of coal, split equally between New South Wales and Queensland. Forecasts by the Joint Coal Board for Australian exports in 1990 are in the range 115 to 180 million tonnes, increasing by 2,000 to 180 to 290 million tonnes; 55 to 60% is to come from New South Wales. The World Coal Study forecasts are at the lower end of the range. Will the supply factors allow these forecasts to be achieved?

Australia's measured and indicated recoverable reserves are sufficient to sustain the year 2000 (total) production level for about 70 years. The desire of companies to produce coal is also sufficient to achieve these forecasts. Committed and proposed projects could result in an export productive capacity, by 1990, of 110 million tonnes in Queensland and 80 million in New South Wales. However, port capacity will probably constrain exports to a maximum of 65 million tonnes for each state.

A more severe constraint upon exports will be the cost of the coal FOB port. Although the Australian coal industry has the world's highest output per manshift, wage scales are also very high. More critically, royalties and other government charges, particularly excess rail freight charges, are so high that many prospective mines will probably not be economic.

This prediction is expounded using supply curves for the existing and near term New South Wales and Queensland producers.

End_of_Article - Last_Page 958------------