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AAPG Bulletin

Abstract


Volume: 66 (1982)

Issue: 10. (October)

First Page: 1683

Last Page: 1683

Title: Prediction of California's Next Earthquake: ABSTRACT

Author(s): Arthur G. Sylvester

Article Type: Meeting abstract

Abstract:

A great earthquake, centered near Los Angeles or San Francisco, has the potential to be the greatest natural catastrophe ever to strike the United States in historic time. According to some estimates, as many as 10,000 people could be killed, 100,000 could be injured, and up to $40 billion damage could occur.

Against this threat, many state and federal agencies, universities, and private consultants are working overtime in California to fathom the riddle of how and why earthquakes occur, in the hope of gaining understanding of the earthquake process, and leading to timely predictions to reduce the loss of life and property.

Following examples which have been variously successful in the People's Republic of China, Japan, and the Soviet Union, American seismologists are designing, testing, and studying a wide variety of instruments and initiatives they hope will be successful in making predictions routine. Techniques and instruments range from traditional seismographs, tiltmeters, and creepmeters, to monitoring changes of gravity, magnetic field, and resistivity, to observing behavior of kangaroo rats, emission of radon gas, and measuring levels of water wells.

Results have been mixed. No one has issued a formal prediction, which demands that the time, place, magnitude, and estimated effects be specified, but several earthquake alerts have been given. To confound matters, however, earthquakes have happened in the center of heavily instrumented areas without a shred of precursory warning. One statistician has said that at the rate we are progressing, we shall not have another chance to predict a great earthquake in California for 100 years if we miss the next one, which some experts say will happen in the next decade.

This lecture gives an overview of the problems and techniques of predicting California's next earthquake, together with a discussion of the status quo which, at the time this abstract was written, included a possible volcanic eruption a few hours' drive from downtown Los Angeles.

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Copyright 1997 American Association of Petroleum Geologists