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Assessments of undiscovered oil and gas potentials for a group of untested but geologically related prospects can be made from an estimate of the possible ranges in number and size of potential fields, assuming the play exists, coupled with an evaluation of geologic risks that it might not exist. Field size distributions can be constructed from known field reserves in geologically similar plays, from assessments of representative prospects in the play, or from simulations of distributions of the play's prospect areas, reservoir parameters and potential hydrocarbon fill. The field size distributions are truncated at both ends, at a practical minimum and at the largest size reasonable expected in the play. The possible range of number of potential fields is estimated from c unted and postulated numbers of untested prospects in conjunction with a success ratio, or from look-alike field densities. The chance that the play exists is the chance that there is at least 1 field of at least the minimum size assessed. The final assessment curves, developed by Monte Carlo simulation, portray exceedance probability vs. the range of possible recoverable hydrocarbon potential.
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