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The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database
AAPG Bulletin
Abstract
AAPG Bulletin, V.
DOI: 10.1306/08122019100
Life span of
oil
reservoirs: Examples from three old reef pools in Alberta, Canada
oil
reservoirs: Examples from three old reef pools in Alberta, Canada
Mengwei Zhao
HC Exploration Ltd., Calgary, Alberta, Canada; [email protected]
ABSTRACT
After reaching a plateau, the production of
oil
reservoirs starts to decline, which substantially determines their life expectancy. Declining production data from three 58- to 71-yr-old
oil
pools in Alberta, Canada, have been documented and analyzed to show and predict their life span. Two declining phases of
oil
production can be distinguished: a short 4–11-yr substantially declining phase and a long 23–35-yr gradually declining phase. Well-fitted power regressions of the two declining phases of the pools have been observed with high
correlation
coefficients of 0.95–0.99 and used to forecast future annual
oil
production for the next 30 yr, yielding projected life spans of at least 88 to 101 yr. These pools have been producing
oil
at high water cuts of greater than 0.9 for 30–38 yr, currently more than 0.980 and 0.996, but still have potential to continue to deliver for at least another 30 yr. Production data from two pools indicate that 11% of original
oil
in place and 16%–26% of cumulative
oil
output were produced at a high water cut of greater than 0.9. These observation results can be used to judge other similar reef
oil
pools’ future production potential. This study provides a physical example to test the Hubbert curve and implies that the Hubbert curve should provide only the minimum future ultimate recoveries and the shortest future production times.
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