The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database
AAPG Bulletin
Figure
AAPG Bulletin; Year: 2023; Issue: May DOI: 10.1306/09232222051
Return to Full Text
Figure 11.
(A) Decision tree showing the expected monetary value (EMV) of drilling at the crest. The two black squares show that there is an option to drill a downdip appraisal well if there is a discovery (disc), which is pursued here. Note that this evaluation does not have a physical well location. The probabilities (Prob.) of the branches are based on the percent of the total number of simulation trials that exceed the minimum commercial field size (MCFS). (B) Decision tree for a location 400 ac downdip. The upper two black squares show that there is an option to drill a downdip appraisal well if there is a discovery, which is not pursued here. The lower black square indicates the option to drill an updip appraisal well if the location is a dry hole, but this is not pursued here. Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), Prob., and net present value (NPV) from Table 3 . (C) Decision tree for a location 400 ac downdip, where a discovery is followed by a downdip appraisal well, but a dry hole is not appraised with an updip appraisal well. The EUR, Prob., and NPV from Table 3 . (D) Decision tree for a location 400 ac downdip, where a discovery is not followed by a downdip appraisal well. However, if the exploration well is a dry hole, then the circle represents the chance node an updip appraisal well will either succeed or fail. Comm. = commercial; expl = exploration; $MM = million dollars; MMBO = million barrels of oil; N = no; Pg = probability of geologic success; Pwell = chance that the downdip location will be a discovery; Y = yes.
Figure 11.
(A) Decision tree showing the expected monetary value (EMV) of drilling at the crest. The two black squares show that there is an option to drill a downdip appraisal well if there is a discovery (disc), which is pursued here. Note that this evaluation does not have a physical well location. The probabilities (Prob.) of the branches are based on the percent of the total number of simulation trials that exceed the minimum commercial field size (MCFS). (B) Decision tree for a location 400 ac downdip. The upper two black squares show that there is an option to drill a downdip appraisal well if there is a discovery, which is not pursued here. The lower black square indicates the option to drill an updip appraisal well if the location is a dry hole, but this is not pursued here. Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), Prob., and net present value (NPV) from