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AAPG Bulletin
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AAPG Bulletin; Year: 2023; Issue: May DOI: 10.1306/09232222051
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Figure 3.
Example prospect estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) distribution plotted in a log-probit coordinate system. Percentile values (P) for key inputs and output values shown in upper left corner. Recovery yield is defined in the text as the product of the volumetric parameters excluding the net rock volume. A minimum commercial field size (MCFS) of 9.4 million bbl of oil (MMBO) was applied to redistribute EUR values in excess of the MCFS as the curved “commercial distribution.” With a probability of geological success of 50% and the MCFS of 9.4 million bbl of oil that posts at P66, the probability of commercial success is 66% × 50% = 33%. Avg. = average; BO = barrels of oil; Pc = probability of commercial success; Pg = probability of geologic success; PMCFS = given a discovery, the chance of finding an EUR greater than or equal to the MCFS.
Figure 3. Example prospect estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) distribution plotted in a log-probit coordinate system. Percentile values (P) for key inputs and output values shown in upper left corner. Recovery yield is defined in the text as the product of the volumetric parameters excluding the net rock volume. A minimum commercial field size (MCFS) of 9.4 million bbl of oil (MMBO) was applied to redistribute EUR values in excess of the MCFS as the curved “commercial distribution.” With a probability of geological success of 50% and the MCFS of 9.4 million bbl of oil that posts at P66, the probability of commercial success is 66% × 50% = 33%. Avg. = average; BO = barrels of oil; Pc = probability of commercial success; Pg = probability of geologic success; PMCFS = given a discovery, the chance of finding an EUR greater than or equal to the MCFS.