The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database
AAPG Bulletin
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AAPG Bulletin; Year: 2023; Issue: May DOI: 10.1306/09232222051
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Figure 8.
Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) distributions updip and downdip of a well location with 400 ac updip, plotted on a log-probit coordinate system, with the prospect probability of geologic success (Pg) = 50% and the chance the downdip location will be a discovery (Pwell) = 43%. The Pwell (comm) is the chance the downdip resources will be commercially successful, given the minimum commercial field size (MCFS) posts at the 82nd percentile (P82), such that Pwell (comm) = 82% × 43% = 35%. The commercial distribution associated with that is redistributed as the curved line. If the well location is a dry hole, then the MCFS can be projected to the updip resource distribution and projects at P13. Thus, given a dry hole, the probability of commercial success for a crestal well updip = 13% × Pg = 13% × 50% = 6.5%. The shaded rectangle represents the overlap of the updip and downdip distributions. MMBO = million barrels of oil; PMCFS = given a discovery, the chance of finding an EUR greater than or equal to the MCFS.
Figure 8. Estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) distributions updip and downdip of a well location with 400 ac updip, plotted on a log-probit coordinate system, with the prospect probability of geologic success (Pg) = 50% and the chance the downdip location will be a discovery (Pwell) = 43%. The Pwell (comm) is the chance the downdip resources will be commercially successful, given the minimum commercial field size (MCFS) posts at the 82nd percentile (P82), such that Pwell (comm) = 82% × 43% = 35%. The commercial distribution associated with that is redistributed as the curved line. If the well location is a dry hole, then the MCFS can be projected to the updip resource distribution and projects at P13. Thus, given a dry hole, the probability of commercial success for a crestal well updip = 13% × Pg = 13% × 50% = 6.5%. The shaded rectangle represents the overlap of the updip and downdip distributions. MMBO = million barrels of oil; PMCFS = given a discovery, the chance of finding an EUR greater than or equal to the MCFS.