ABSTRACT

In the past few years, considerable interest has been generated in the management of uncertainty in oil and gas field appraisal and development, particularly by the creation of computer-based reservoir modelling systems. Reservoir modelling is a sequence of steps that takes raw reservoir information and predicts future field performance to prepare a field development plan. Input into reservoir modelling calls for a collaboration of both geological and engineering talents with a complete understanding of diverse data sets such as sedimentology, fluid flow, formation evaluation, three-dimensional seismic, DST/RFT interpretations, and core analysis. The geological uncertainties that are most commonly managed by reservoir modelling techniques are:

1. an accurate description and interpretation of sediment body genetic type (in both cored and uncored wells)
2. geometry, spatial arrangement (architecture), and connectivity of sediment bodies in interwell 3-D space
3. horizontal and vertical permeability distribution throughout all facies types
4. effects of diagenesis and the influences of fault displacement, fracturing, and tectonic joints
5. the "scaling-up" from details observed in core into mappable reservoir units

Reservoir modelling can improve the estimates for oil and gas recovery in reserve calculations and can also help locate development wells and improve development strategy. Finally, reservoir modelling can give a more accurate range of simulation predictions, which permit planning secondary/tertiary recovery methods that extend the production life of the reservoir.

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