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The AAPG/Datapages Combined Publications Database

CSPG Special Publications


Facts and Principles of World Petroleum Occurrence — Memoir 6, 1980
Pages 377-389
Petroleum Supply and Demand: Geology, Politics and Economics

World Supply and Demand

M. A. Adelman


The energy “gap” or “shortage” is logical nonsense. An oil “price break” upwards is possible, but unlikely. There is an interrelated system of demand; supply potential; monopoly control by the OPEC nations; effects of crude oil price changes on the world economy and on consumer-nations policies.

Some preliminary results of the World Petroleum Project at M.I.T. are:

1. slow consumption growth because of lower income growth, the delayed effects of higher prices in 1973-74, and future increases;

2. complex effects on supply of higher oil prices which (depending on government action) may increase or decrease investment and capacity;

3. excess capacity and also higher prices through the 1980’s unless the monopoly is unexpectedly destroyed;

4. great uncertainty must itself be factored into the policies of business and government.

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